1st item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 Blink Dagger | 18,580 (83.3%) | +1.01 | Inconclusive |
 Radiance | 1,181 (5.3%) | +3.82 | ✓ Better |
 Aghanim's Shard | 938 (4.2%) | −11.59 | Inconclusive |
Dragon Knight build (patch 7.41f)
Dragon Knight core items in patch 7.41f, ranked by WPA over 22,529 ranked matches (all ranks). Win rate alone is misleading: items bought from ahead win more because the game was going your way anyway. Learn more
- Matches
- 22,529
- Decisions
- 143.1K
- Confirmed
- 9
Overview
Each card compares the items of the same slot in the build. Click an item for details.
2nd item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aghanim's Shard | 17,491 (79.9%) | −0.06 | Inconclusive |
| Blink Dagger | 2,368 (10.8%) | +1.57 | ✓ Better |
 Black King Bar | 873 (4.0%) | −2.97 | Inconclusive |
3rd item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black King Bar | 13,138 (65.8%) | −0.77 | ✕ Worse |
| Aghanim's Shard | 1,902 (9.5%) | −0.63 | Inconclusive |
 Octarine Core | 1,801 (9.0%) | +3.22 | Inconclusive |
4th+ item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Octarine Core | 8,574 (26.1%) | +0.37 | Inconclusive |
 Shiva's Guard | 5,751 (17.5%) | +0.60 | Inconclusive |
 Aghanim's Scepter | 4,772 (14.6%) | +1.29 | ✓ Better |
Boots
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 Power Treads | 22,194 (99.5%) | – | Consensus · 99.5% of purchases |
 Phase Boots | 62 (0.3%) | +3.90 | Inconclusive |
 Boots of Travel | 47 (0.2%) | +12.98 | Inconclusive |
Boots upgrade
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boots of Travel | 248 (90.8%) | – | Consensus · 90.8% of purchases |
Lane item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bracer | 13,790 (61.7%) | −0.01 | Inconclusive |
 Soul Ring | 4,707 (21.1%) | +0.04 | Inconclusive |
 Magic Wand | 3,832 (17.1%) | −0.00 | Inconclusive |
2nd lane item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soul Ring | 9,689 (47.2%) | −0.29 | Inconclusive |
| Magic Wand | 7,639 (37.2%) | +0.62 | Inconclusive |
| Bracer | 3,180 (15.5%) | −1.22 | Inconclusive |
Build by WPA
The item with the highest WPA in each slot, among items with at least 5% of the slot's purchases.
- 1st item: Radiance ✓ +3.82 pp
- 2nd item: Blink Dagger ✓ +1.57 pp
- 3rd item: Octarine Core +3.22 pp
- 4th+ item: Aghanim's Scepter ✓ +1.29 pp
- Boots: Power Treads consensus, 99.5% of purchases
- Lane item: Soul Ring +0.04 pp
In patch 7.41f, the highest WPA per slot for Dragon Knight core is Radiance (+3.82) as 1st item, Blink Dagger (+1.57) as 2nd item, Octarine Core (+3.22) as 3rd item, Aghanim's Scepter (+1.29) as 4th+ item, Power Treads (consensus, 99.5% of purchases) as boots, Soul Ring (+0.04) as lane item. 9 items have a confirmed verdict in both anchors; for the rest, the sign of the WPA is a trend. Base: 22,529 matches (all ranks).
All purchases
WPA of each item at any point of the match, against items of similar price. Useful for items outside the main order (Wand, Shard, expensive consumables).
| Item | Purchases | WPA | 95% CI | Win rate | Minute | Fate | Verdict |
|---|
How to read
What is WPA?
Win probability added: how much choosing an item changed the chance of winning, in percentage points, compared with what the hero usually buys in that same slot and situation. +1.0 means the choice won 1 percentage point more than the typical purchase. Unlike raw win rate, it accounts for the game state when the item was bought, so an item bought from ahead doesn't look good just because the game was already won.
Build slots
1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th+ count completed items. Components that become another item in most matches (Perseverance, Dragon Lance, Kaya) do not take a slot: the item they build into does. Boots get a card of their own.
Confirmed or not
The ✓ Better or ✕ Worse badge only appears when the effect passes the false discovery control (10%) in both ways of measuring: at the start of the decision and at the moment of purchase. Without a badge, the sign of the WPA is a trend.
Where the data comes from
Ranked (All Pick) matches parsed by OpenDota in the current patch. One model estimates the chance of winning from the game state; another, the effect of each item at the time of the decision. It is association, not causation: the model sees the game, not who is playing.