1st item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 Blink Dagger | 4,957 (46.6%) | +2.67 | ✓ Better |
 Drum of Endurance | 2,427 (22.8%) | +0.02 | Inconclusive |
 Hand of Midas | 1,427 (13.4%) | −9.78 | ✕ Worse |
Night Stalker build (patch 7.41f)
Night Stalker core items in patch 7.41f, ranked by WPA over 10,895 ranked matches (all ranks). Win rate alone is misleading: items bought from ahead win more because the game was going your way anyway. Learn more
- Matches
- 10,895
- Decisions
- 71.9K
- Confirmed
- 6
Overview
Each card compares the items of the same slot in the build. Click an item for details.
2nd item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blink Dagger | 3,983 (40.1%) | +0.68 | Inconclusive |
 Black King Bar | 3,206 (32.3%) | −0.19 | Inconclusive |
 Aghanim's Shard | 1,098 (11.1%) | −2.84 | Inconclusive |
3rd item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black King Bar | 3,138 (38.0%) | −0.01 | Inconclusive |
| Aghanim's Shard | 1,380 (16.7%) | −2.21 | Inconclusive |
 Nullifier | 934 (11.3%) | +0.46 | Inconclusive |
4th+ item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nullifier | 2,338 (20.3%) | −1.53 | Inconclusive |
 Skull Basher | 1,661 (14.4%) | +0.80 | Inconclusive |
| Black King Bar | 1,606 (13.9%) | −2.43 | Inconclusive |
Boots
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 Phase Boots | 8,955 (83.3%) | +0.12 | Inconclusive |
 Power Treads | 1,756 (16.3%) | −0.63 | Inconclusive |
 Tranquil Boots | 35 (0.3%) | +2.27 | Inconclusive |
Boots upgrade
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 Boots of Travel | 56 (56.6%) | +1.67 | Inconclusive |
Lane item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bracer | 6,505 (63.6%) | +0.16 | Inconclusive |
 Magic Wand | 2,365 (23.1%) | +0.54 | Inconclusive |
 Soul Ring | 1,235 (12.1%) | −1.36 | Inconclusive |
2nd lane item
| Item | Purchases | WPA | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Wand | 3,501 (46.6%) | +0.35 | Inconclusive |
| Bracer | 2,517 (33.5%) | −1.35 | Inconclusive |
| Soul Ring | 1,341 (17.8%) | −0.47 | Inconclusive |
Build by WPA
The item with the highest WPA in each slot, among items with at least 5% of the slot's purchases.
- 1st item: Blink Dagger ✓ +2.67 pp
- 2nd item:
Harpoon +4.76 pp - 3rd item: Nullifier +0.46 pp
- 4th+ item:
Assault Cuirass +3.04 pp - Boots: Phase Boots +0.12 pp
- Lane item: Magic Wand +0.54 pp
In patch 7.41f, the highest WPA per slot for Night Stalker core is Blink Dagger (+2.67) as 1st item, Harpoon (+4.76) as 2nd item, Nullifier (+0.46) as 3rd item, Assault Cuirass (+3.04) as 4th+ item, Phase Boots (+0.12) as boots, Magic Wand (+0.54) as lane item. 6 items have a confirmed verdict in both anchors; for the rest, the sign of the WPA is a trend. Base: 10,895 matches (all ranks).
All purchases
WPA of each item at any point of the match, against items of similar price. Useful for items outside the main order (Wand, Shard, expensive consumables).
| Item | Purchases | WPA | 95% CI | Win rate | Minute | Fate | Verdict |
|---|
How to read
What is WPA?
Win probability added: how much choosing an item changed the chance of winning, in percentage points, compared with what the hero usually buys in that same slot and situation. +1.0 means the choice won 1 percentage point more than the typical purchase. Unlike raw win rate, it accounts for the game state when the item was bought, so an item bought from ahead doesn't look good just because the game was already won.
Build slots
1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th+ count completed items. Components that become another item in most matches (Perseverance, Dragon Lance, Kaya) do not take a slot: the item they build into does. Boots get a card of their own.
Confirmed or not
The ✓ Better or ✕ Worse badge only appears when the effect passes the false discovery control (10%) in both ways of measuring: at the start of the decision and at the moment of purchase. Without a badge, the sign of the WPA is a trend.
Where the data comes from
Ranked (All Pick) matches parsed by OpenDota in the current patch. One model estimates the chance of winning from the game state; another, the effect of each item at the time of the decision. It is association, not causation: the model sees the game, not who is playing.