Item Slam Patch 7.41f
Essence Distiller

Essence Distiller: best heroes by WPA

Essence Distiller in patch 7.41f: WPA of the purchase on 26 heroes, by role and build slot, against the other items bought in the same slot. Highest WPA, still inconclusive: Axe support, 1st item (+7.75 pp).

By hero and slot

WPA of the item against the other items bought in the same slot, in matches of every rank. Slots with fewer than 30 purchases are left out.

Hero Role Slot Purchases WPA 95% CI Verdict
AxeSupport1st item36 (6.9%)+7.75+0.93 to +14.58Inconclusive
SnapfireSupport1st item178 (2.9%)+5.84+0.41 to +10.96Inconclusive
LichSupport1st item141 (1.2%)+4.81−1.61 to +9.04Inconclusive
SnapfireSupport2nd item49 (0.9%)+4.51−0.35 to +9.78Inconclusive
ZeusSupport1st item48 (0.7%)+3.76−3.84 to +11.77Inconclusive
Witch DoctorSupport1st item930 (8.5%)+3.43+1.04 to +5.73Inconclusive
RubickCore1st item62 (1.9%)+3.01−0.85 to +7.49Inconclusive
InvokerCore1st item30 (0.2%)+2.69−2.76 to +6.74Inconclusive
PudgeSupport1st item1,496 (3.9%)+2.66+0.29 to +4.64Inconclusive
PudgeCore1st item31 (0.2%)+2.10−2.74 to +6.94Inconclusive
Skywrath MageSupport1st item226 (3.2%)+1.95−3.48 to +6.72Inconclusive
Winter WyvernSupport2nd item98 (0.8%)+1.72−1.44 to +4.62Inconclusive
UndyingSupport1st item194 (2.3%)+1.49−3.44 to +7.33Inconclusive
Spirit BreakerSupport1st item563 (3.4%)+1.37−1.97 to +4.81Inconclusive
TechiesSupport2nd item69 (0.5%)+1.23−2.08 to +4.75Inconclusive
Winter WyvernSupport1st item737 (4.8%)+1.21−2.07 to +4.73Inconclusive
Witch DoctorSupport2nd item110 (1.1%)+1.10−2.27 to +5.36Inconclusive
PudgeSupport2nd item375 (1.1%)+1.06−1.93 to +4.02Inconclusive
RubickSupport3rd item78 (0.5%)+0.97−1.97 to +4.11Inconclusive
RubickSupport2nd item318 (1.5%)+0.96−2.02 to +3.63Inconclusive
Dark WillowSupport1st item4,993 (38.8%)+0.95−0.06 to +2.04Inconclusive
RubickSupport1st item7,867 (34.0%)+0.71−0.02 to +1.57Inconclusive
LionSupport2nd item52 (0.4%)+0.58−4.70 to +6.12Inconclusive
GrimstrokeSupport1st item481 (5.6%)+0.51−3.01 to +3.73Inconclusive
LionSupport1st item70 (0.5%)+0.44−7.22 to +7.76Inconclusive
Nyx AssassinSupport3rd item32 (0.7%)+0.33−1.93 to +2.37Inconclusive
PudgeSupport3rd item113 (0.5%)+0.12−2.83 to +2.40Inconclusive
DisruptorSupport1st item1,184 (10.2%)+0.10−1.86 to +2.26Inconclusive
Crystal MaidenSupport1st item177 (1.7%)+0.08−5.44 to +6.16Inconclusive
Witch DoctorSupport3rd item60 (0.9%)+0.06−2.73 to +3.12Inconclusive
Nyx AssassinSupport1st item1,600 (15.5%)+0.04−1.83 to +1.76Inconclusive
PudgeSupport4th+ item32 (0.3%)−0.03−1.92 to +1.66Inconclusive
Witch DoctorSupport4th+ item31 (0.7%)−0.11−2.29 to +2.06Inconclusive
Ogre MagiSupport1st item33 (0.6%)−0.14−6.64 to +8.24Inconclusive
Queen of PainSupport1st item108 (15.8%)−0.19−5.42 to +5.83Inconclusive
HoodwinkSupport1st item8,857 (54.6%)−0.22−0.77 to +0.35Inconclusive
Winter WyvernSupport3rd item32 (0.5%)−0.25−3.32 to +2.43Inconclusive
MiranaSupport1st item8,430 (48.0%)−0.35−1.00 to +0.36Inconclusive
DisruptorSupport2nd item50 (0.6%)−0.38−3.41 to +2.38Inconclusive
InvokerSupport1st item368 (11.5%)−0.43−4.38 to +3.55Inconclusive
TechiesSupport1st item1,001 (6.4%)−0.48−2.76 to +2.01Inconclusive
Bounty HunterSupport1st item3,001 (19.0%)−0.53−1.98 to +0.79Inconclusive
MiranaSupport2nd item476 (3.3%)−0.64−3.02 to +1.52Inconclusive
Nyx AssassinSupport2nd item93 (1.2%)−0.66−3.76 to +1.64Inconclusive
WindrangerSupport1st item4,147 (46.2%)−0.82−1.90 to +0.04Inconclusive
WindrangerCore1st item75 (0.7%)−0.89−5.59 to +3.97Inconclusive
GrimstrokeSupport2nd item53 (0.8%)−1.65−5.37 to +1.88Inconclusive
WindrangerSupport2nd item150 (2.0%)−1.77−4.58 to +1.26Inconclusive
HoodwinkSupport2nd item237 (1.7%)−2.09−5.44 to +0.62Inconclusive
Dark WillowSupport4th+ item35 (0.6%)−2.10−4.42 to +0.78Inconclusive
MiranaSupport3rd item93 (1.1%)−2.10−4.77 to +0.11Inconclusive
Spirit BreakerSupport2nd item110 (0.8%)−2.20−5.55 to +1.06Inconclusive
Dark WillowSupport3rd item119 (1.4%)−2.22−5.24 to +0.79Inconclusive
Bounty HunterSupport3rd item61 (0.7%)−2.25−4.13 to −0.15Inconclusive
HoodwinkSupport3rd item65 (0.7%)−2.33−5.38 to +0.72Inconclusive
RubickSupport4th+ item33 (0.2%)−2.78−5.92 to −0.26Inconclusive
Crystal MaidenSupport2nd item70 (0.7%)−2.90−6.80 to +0.96Inconclusive
Dark WillowSupport2nd item375 (3.3%)−2.94−6.08 to −0.14Inconclusive
MiranaCore1st item101 (12.2%)−3.44−7.03 to +0.26Inconclusive
Ogre MagiSupport2nd item37 (0.8%)−3.47−9.79 to +2.20Inconclusive
Bounty HunterSupport2nd item262 (1.9%)−3.79−6.72 to −0.52Inconclusive
InvokerSupport2nd item42 (1.5%)−4.33−8.60 to −0.38Inconclusive
Shadow ShamanSupport1st item35 (0.4%)−4.57−13.37 to +4.03Inconclusive

How to read

What is WPA?

Win probability added: how much choosing an item changed the chance of winning, in percentage points, compared with what the hero usually buys in that same slot and situation. +1.0 means the choice won 1 percentage point more than the typical purchase. Unlike raw win rate, it accounts for the game state when the item was bought, so an item bought from ahead doesn't look good just because the game was already won.

Build slots

1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th+ count completed items. Components that become another item in most matches (Perseverance, Dragon Lance, Kaya) do not take a slot: the item they build into does. Boots get a card of their own.

Confirmed or not

The ✓ Better or ✕ Worse badge only appears when the effect passes the false discovery control (10%) in both ways of measuring: at the start of the decision and at the moment of purchase. Without a badge, the sign of the WPA is a trend.

Where the data comes from

Ranked (All Pick) matches parsed by OpenDota in the current patch. One model estimates the chance of winning from the game state; another, the effect of each item at the time of the decision. It is association, not causation: the model sees the game, not who is playing.